Wednesday, July 4, 2007

Handicapping the Presidential Election

Gambling is illegal in this country, except where it's legal, like Nevada, Atlantic City, some Indian reservations, on barges in many cities, and arguably in "private home games". Also legal is horse racing, dog racing, jai-alai and other "pari-mutuel" forms of betting (I know WAY too much about this, and if anyone wants an explanation of pari-mutuel betting, post a comment and I will explain). Also legal in some States is poker, though internet poker is "illegal" (yet somehow I may be playing later tonight). Sports betting is only legal in Nevada, though billions of dollars is bet illegally on all sports. Ever wonder what those baseball odds in the paper are all about? (Yeah....I know about that too). Lotteries seem to be everywhere, too.

In this country, you can't bet the Presidential election legally, but there ARE places where you can. I Googled "Odds on Presidential Candidates" and got this cool site

Check it won't be arrested.
It made me think, Polls Shmolls, this is where the action is.
I will list the odds as this site states them, with some comments:

1. Hillary Clinton 2-1 knew she'd be the chalk, these are "best" odds, some books have her at even money or less. No filly has ever won the big one, but Bill can really ride.
2. Barack Obama 5-1 does he have a better chance than Rudy? I don't see it. I may use him in an exacta with Hillary.
3. Fred Thompson 6-1 Who??? Rudy is in trouble if this guy is a lower price. First time politicians rarely can get around two turns.
4. Rudy Giuliani 8-1 Not a bad price. Might have beaten Hillary for Senator but came up lame. Breeding a question mark.
5. Al Gore 12-1 Could emerge if Hillary stumbles. Shoulda taken the prize back when.
6. Mitt Romney 14-1 Couldn't pick him out of a lineup. Is he a Mormon? Big Love is my favorite show.
7. John Edwards 20-1 Big overlay. All or nothing, won't take second seat.
8. John McCain 25-1 Can you picture it happening? I can't.
9. Michael Bloomberg 40-1 Awesome mayor, incorruptable, strictly business. Could affect race and would likely hurt Hillary. Pbly will scratch.
10. Evan Bayh 50-1 Not this time.

There are other longshots listed....Jeb Bush, Dick Cheney, Condi Rice, Newt Gingrich, Bill Richardson, John Kerry. I wonder if you could bet the "Field" of others, that would probably be about 25-1 right now.

Who do you like?

No comments: