Monday, January 28, 2008

What is "Electability" Anyway?

Yesterday I posited that Hillary would like to make Obama's electability an issue. She just has to figure out HOW to do it.

"These things have to be

Lest anyone think this is only about race, or only about the Democrats, I will also say that for the Republicans, Huckabee is not electable either. After he won Iowa, he created some worry. Many Republicans like him, but realistically, he can't beat Hillary.

Pollsters run head to head comparisons, and surely the candidates do it too. Lets run some combinations and permutations....

Hillary - McCain
Hillary - Romney
Hillary - Giuliani
Hillary - Huckabee

Obama - McCain
Obama - Romney
Obama - Giuliani
Obama - Huckabee

The way I see it.....
Hillary against McCain is the most likely result, and would be close.
Hillary against Romney or Giuliani is a dogfight.
Hillary against Huckabee is a romp for Hillary (Huckabee lacks electablility against Hillary)

Obama v Huckabee would be fun, and I will grant they have electability against each other.
Obama v Romney or Giuliani......Obama loses but it's a contest.....maybe
Obama v McCain is a romp for McCain (Obama lacks electability against McCain)

The more McCain strengthens, the less electable Obama appears, and conflicted Democrats are less likely to vote for him. It should be taken as a given that African American Democrats will vote overwhelmingly for Obama, and with a high turnout. He is a strong candidate, and actually electable, in four or eight years. Is fear of McCain enough to spur a strong white turnout for Hillary? He's such an odd candidate that many nominal Democrats will vote for him in the general election. Hillary better hope that white Democrats don't turn out and vote for Obama, in a backhanded assist for McCain. Oops, did I actually say that? and why the Hispanic vote will ultimately decide the election.

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