Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Running a Scenario

I don't want to make predictions. After all, if I'm wrong, there it is with my name and the date of my wrongness. Not that so many people are reading, but I confess, I read it, and it would bother me to read a wrong prediction.

So, instead of making a prediction, I will "run a scenario". That way, if I'm wrong, I won't have made a wrong prediction. If my scenario runs true, I won't say I made a correct prediction, but I will know I did.

Here goes......

A health care reform bill will NOT be passed.

It will be the first humbling defeat for President Obama. He will handle it with dignity.

As a result of this defeat, despite his valiant efforts to DO SOMETHING, his stature and credibility will rise.

He will then undertake the next big social issue of our day.....IMMIGRATION.

As emotional as immigration reform is, it is much simpler than health care reform.

It has the potential for bi-partisanship, negotiation, and results that are predicable, measurable, and understandable.

Congress will pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill in 2010, and President Obama will sign it.

Right leaning Republicans will rail against this new law, and make it the cornerstone of their effort to take back the White House.

President Obama will be re-elected in a landslide, largely because of his handling of immigration reform in the aftermath of his defeat on health care reform.

Many will speculate as to why Obama chose to tackle health care before immigration. Ultimately this decision, whether by design or not, will be credited as one of the most brilliant moves in American political history.

If this all turns out to be wrong....hey, it was just a scenario.

Somehow, though, I do think this is how it's going to play out.

Your scenarios are welcome.