What is "Electability" Anyway?

Yesterday I posited that Hillary would like to make Obama's electability an issue. She just has to figure out HOW to do it.







"These things have to be
handled DELICATELY"



Lest anyone think this is only about race, or only about the Democrats, I will also say that for the Republicans, Huckabee is not electable either. After he won Iowa, he created some worry. Many Republicans like him, but realistically, he can't beat Hillary.


Pollsters run head to head comparisons, and surely the candidates do it too. Lets run some combinations and permutations....


Hillary - McCain
Hillary - Romney
Hillary - Giuliani
Hillary - Huckabee


Obama - McCain
Obama - Romney
Obama - Giuliani
Obama - Huckabee


The way I see it.....
Hillary against McCain is the most likely result, and would be close.
Hillary against Romney or Giuliani is a dogfight.
Hillary against Huckabee is a romp for Hillary (Huckabee lacks electablility against Hillary)


Obama v Huckabee would be fun, and I will grant they have electability against each other.
Obama v Romney or Giuliani......Obama loses but it's a contest.....maybe
Obama v McCain is a romp for McCain (Obama lacks electability against McCain)


The more McCain strengthens, the less electable Obama appears, and conflicted Democrats are less likely to vote for him. It should be taken as a given that African American Democrats will vote overwhelmingly for Obama, and with a high turnout. He is a strong candidate, and actually electable, in four or eight years. Is fear of McCain enough to spur a strong white turnout for Hillary? He's such an odd candidate that many nominal Democrats will vote for him in the general election. Hillary better hope that white Democrats don't turn out and vote for Obama, in a backhanded assist for McCain. Oops, did I actually say that?


Tomorrow.....how and why the Hispanic vote will ultimately decide the election.

The "E" Word

Poor Hillary. She should be getting the nomination easily, but it's not happening that way.

Ironically, the best analogy for her situation comes from the world of sports. Sometimes in sports, one team seems much stronger than the other, but for some reason the weaker team presents a "bad match-up". The strong team could roll over anyone else in the league, even teams way stronger than the bad match-up team, but THAT team gives the strong team fits.

Why is Obama such a bad match-up for Hillary?

It's starts with a basic premiss. The Democrats are the ultimate party of political correctness. It's what much of the country hates about them. When you value political correctness, you de-value genuine-ness. You seem like a POLITICIAN. Note to the Clintons....this is not a good thing.

Obama is a bad match-up for Hillary because it is politically incorrect to critisize him. She knows this, she has known it from the start. And every time she tries, it bites her back double. It's probably politically incorrect for me to even say these things, but hey, I'm not a politician. Nor am I a Democrat, though I am registered that way. I've voted for lots of Democrats too, and lots of Republicans. If I cannot be labeled, I'm proud. I am also proud to be an American who despises political correctness.

There is something even more politically incorrect, something about the match-up, that Hillary knows. A card she wants to play, the BIG explosive card, the one everyone knows but they are not talking about.....yet. She is going to play this card, it is the winning card, unless she plays it wrong. The card is the "E" word.

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I'm not worried about being politically incorrect, so I'll just say it.

Obama is not ELECTABLE.

That is the big card. This is the thing that most Democrats know, but are afraid to say. It's what Hillary wants and needs them to say, but she can't say it. Bill can't say it either, not publicly. But the card WILL be played. Democratic voters on Super Tuesday will be thinking about this, and maybe whispering about this, and ultimately, will vote this way. They will vote with the realization that Obama is not electable, and Hillary will get the nomination. If they stay politically correct in the voting booth, and are worried about how it will look if they reject Obama and his "message of change" or whatever, the Democrats will be hoisted on their own petard (I always wanted to say that.....I researched the reference http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petard )

Hoisted how? Be honest. How will McCain/Obama turn out?

Tomorrow.....more about the big "E"