I don't want to make predictions. After all, if I'm wrong, there it is with my name and the date of my wrongness. Not that so many people are reading, but I confess, I read it, and it would bother me to read a wrong prediction.
So, instead of making a prediction, I will "run a scenario". That way, if I'm wrong, I won't have made a wrong prediction. If my scenario runs true, I won't say I made a correct prediction, but I will know I did.
Here goes......
A health care reform bill will NOT be passed.
It will be the first humbling defeat for President Obama. He will handle it with dignity.
As a result of this defeat, despite his valiant efforts to DO SOMETHING, his stature and credibility will rise.
He will then undertake the next big social issue of our day.....IMMIGRATION.
As emotional as immigration reform is, it is much simpler than health care reform.
It has the potential for bi-partisanship, negotiation, and results that are predicable, measurable, and understandable.
Congress will pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill in 2010, and President Obama will sign it.
Right leaning Republicans will rail against this new law, and make it the cornerstone of their effort to take back the White House.
President Obama will be re-elected in a landslide, largely because of his handling of immigration reform in the aftermath of his defeat on health care reform.
Many will speculate as to why Obama chose to tackle health care before immigration. Ultimately this decision, whether by design or not, will be credited as one of the most brilliant moves in American political history.
If this all turns out to be wrong....hey, it was just a scenario.
Somehow, though, I do think this is how it's going to play out.
Your scenarios are welcome.
Showing posts with label Obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Obama. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
More Thoughts on GM and Chapter 11
So, the government forces GM Chairman Wagoner to resign, ostensibly because they found GM's latest "plan" and loan requests unacceptable. What is REALLY going on here is the government knows that the only way GM can become viable is to file a Chapter 11, and Wagoner could not and would not do it. One might think that at SOME point, all the parties (unions, bondholders, banks, suppliers, management) would make sufficient concessions to prevent this bus from going over the cliff.
Unfortunately, it can't happen that way. A Chapter 11 reorganization will bring the hammer down on ALL the parties, painfully. However, the entire process is designed to do this as FAIRLY as possible, with all the parties participating. The reason a proceeding is necessary is that NONE of the parties can agree to the depth of concession necessary, even as it clearly IS necessary. A union head could not agree to a massive restructuring of health and retirement benefits, it's just not was he was elected to do. It's practically a breach of his fiduciary responsibility to do such a thing. Similarly, the Board Chairman can't propose to the shareholders that they agree to file a Chapter 11 and wipe out their equity. He'd be breaching his responsibilities if he did such a thing.
The Obama administration has looked at it, and has surely concluded that not only are the key players not able to voluntarily make the drastic cuts that are the only hope, they have also concluded that on the present path, the company CANNOT make it. Any Republicans who think Obama wants to "nationalize" the auto industry, or have the government take it over, are not paying attention. I don't know if GM will survive a Chapter 11 reorganization, but it will be worth the effort. It will be worthwhile for the government to back the effort. It will make way more sense than throwing money at GM without accountability, and without a REAL re-structuring.
Am I the only one who thinks that the "gap" between GM and the foreign competitors has narrowed? I wanted to be open minded and patriotic a few years ago, so I tried a Saturn Vue as our family car. I have never regretted it. When the lease is up, I hope to get another one. I want to be part of GM's emergence from the Chapter 11 I know is coming.
I think when the whole country actually sees how the Chapter 11 reorganization works, and they see that the pain is being spread fairly, and openly, Americans will buy American in droves. If GM survives, I expect they will emerge with a competitive edge, and they will use it to get on the cutting edge of the newest in automobile technology. These ideas are driving Obama toward the right move, orchestrating GM into Chapter 11 reorganization. Hmmm, competitive edge, capitalism, sounds almost Republican. Pay attention Republicans, you might learn something!
Unfortunately, it can't happen that way. A Chapter 11 reorganization will bring the hammer down on ALL the parties, painfully. However, the entire process is designed to do this as FAIRLY as possible, with all the parties participating. The reason a proceeding is necessary is that NONE of the parties can agree to the depth of concession necessary, even as it clearly IS necessary. A union head could not agree to a massive restructuring of health and retirement benefits, it's just not was he was elected to do. It's practically a breach of his fiduciary responsibility to do such a thing. Similarly, the Board Chairman can't propose to the shareholders that they agree to file a Chapter 11 and wipe out their equity. He'd be breaching his responsibilities if he did such a thing.
The Obama administration has looked at it, and has surely concluded that not only are the key players not able to voluntarily make the drastic cuts that are the only hope, they have also concluded that on the present path, the company CANNOT make it. Any Republicans who think Obama wants to "nationalize" the auto industry, or have the government take it over, are not paying attention. I don't know if GM will survive a Chapter 11 reorganization, but it will be worth the effort. It will be worthwhile for the government to back the effort. It will make way more sense than throwing money at GM without accountability, and without a REAL re-structuring.
Am I the only one who thinks that the "gap" between GM and the foreign competitors has narrowed? I wanted to be open minded and patriotic a few years ago, so I tried a Saturn Vue as our family car. I have never regretted it. When the lease is up, I hope to get another one. I want to be part of GM's emergence from the Chapter 11 I know is coming.
I think when the whole country actually sees how the Chapter 11 reorganization works, and they see that the pain is being spread fairly, and openly, Americans will buy American in droves. If GM survives, I expect they will emerge with a competitive edge, and they will use it to get on the cutting edge of the newest in automobile technology. These ideas are driving Obama toward the right move, orchestrating GM into Chapter 11 reorganization. Hmmm, competitive edge, capitalism, sounds almost Republican. Pay attention Republicans, you might learn something!
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Top 10 Memorable Events....Where Will This Rank?
I was going to post a "post-election wrap-up", but so many smart people have already said and written so much, I'll keep mine brief. I especially enjoyed Frank Rich's column in The Sunday Times . http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/09/opinion/09rich.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
I can't resist a few quick observations....
I thought the choice was a "no-brainer", and was horrified by the possibility of racial stupidity actually deciding it. Thankfully, we did a collective "Do The Right Thing". As an aside, if you have never seen "Do the Right Thing" http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0097216/ rent it!! It was groundbreaking because not only did it show white racism from a black perspective, it also courageously questioned many values in the black community.
Obama has incredible energy and stamina. Looks like he took a day off and is ready to get started.
I think Obama will bring in great people. Rahm Emanuel is just a start. If you don't know much about him, check this out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahm_Emanuel
As an adjunct to dealing with the economy, I think immigration will be an early prominent issue. We're gonna need more taxpayers and more participants in universal health care!!
Look for "family values" to return to national discussion. When Obama talks about it, it will have an impact. One of the best things he said during the debates was that "Parents have to take responsibility for education and turn off the TV when necessary."
This election night strikes me as one of those all time "I remember where I was" moments. Will that last? Here's my list of top 10 memorable events (Personal events not included):
10. Mookie's gound ball going through Buckner's legs.
9. Iranian hostages freed.
8. The aftermath of Kent State....I was 13 years old and pretty "conservative". When I heard people justifying the shooting of college students, I changed my world view.
7. Watching the Watergate hearings drone on, when suddenly a Nixon aide said something about tape recordings, and thinking....WOW.
6. Space Shuttle Challenger disaster. A subway conductor announced it over the intercom.
5. John Lennon assassination.
4. Martin Luther King assassination.
3. Robert Kennedy assassination.
2. JFK assassination. I was in second grade. The teachers were crying.
1. 9/11
Obama's election may find a place on that list. How's your list? Will this election be on it?
I can't resist a few quick observations....
I thought the choice was a "no-brainer", and was horrified by the possibility of racial stupidity actually deciding it. Thankfully, we did a collective "Do The Right Thing". As an aside, if you have never seen "Do the Right Thing" http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0097216/ rent it!! It was groundbreaking because not only did it show white racism from a black perspective, it also courageously questioned many values in the black community.
Obama has incredible energy and stamina. Looks like he took a day off and is ready to get started.
I think Obama will bring in great people. Rahm Emanuel is just a start. If you don't know much about him, check this out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahm_Emanuel
As an adjunct to dealing with the economy, I think immigration will be an early prominent issue. We're gonna need more taxpayers and more participants in universal health care!!
Look for "family values" to return to national discussion. When Obama talks about it, it will have an impact. One of the best things he said during the debates was that "Parents have to take responsibility for education and turn off the TV when necessary."
This election night strikes me as one of those all time "I remember where I was" moments. Will that last? Here's my list of top 10 memorable events (Personal events not included):
10. Mookie's gound ball going through Buckner's legs.
9. Iranian hostages freed.
8. The aftermath of Kent State....I was 13 years old and pretty "conservative". When I heard people justifying the shooting of college students, I changed my world view.
7. Watching the Watergate hearings drone on, when suddenly a Nixon aide said something about tape recordings, and thinking....WOW.
6. Space Shuttle Challenger disaster. A subway conductor announced it over the intercom.
5. John Lennon assassination.
4. Martin Luther King assassination.
3. Robert Kennedy assassination.
2. JFK assassination. I was in second grade. The teachers were crying.
1. 9/11
Obama's election may find a place on that list. How's your list? Will this election be on it?
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